Roseman's Eruptions



Lack of Supply Drives Swiss Property

Zurich, Switzerland

Swiss real estate versus Nestlė: That's a close call…

While I've been quite happy holding my Nestlė shares over the last ten years (+125%), my good friend, Lars, has recently outpaced my returns in Nestlė with some impressive gains in local real estate.

Eurozone Deflation Dead Ahead

Zurich, Switzerland

The talk in Europe remains about Greece. Should we or shouldn't we bailout Greece? That's what the Europeans are fiercely debating at the moment.

The Europeans are heading right into the den of a deflationary trap. If that's indeed true then high quality German government bonds, or bunds, offer the best values in the eurozone now. As for the EUR, I believe it has entered a decade of discontent and hardship as the Germans above all debate whether to remain a part of the EMU, or European Monetary Union.

April Puts Spring in Gold's Step

-Dugald Malcolm

Montreal, Canada

It has been a while since I have had an opportunity to give an update on the status of gold. In December of last year I had mentioned that gold was taking a breather from a four week rally that had brought its price from under $1,042 an ounce to over $1,226 an ounce, an almost 18% gain. There were rumblings from critics at the time, saying that gold was way too overbought and that it might very well be in a bubble that was about to burst. There forecast proved to be overly pessimistic.

Bullish Technical Indicators

- Dugald Malcolm

Montreal, Canada

Since I last gave a technical update on March 9th, the S&P has managed to make several successful bullish moves to the upside, taking out a couple of key levels of resistance on the way.

Resource Currencies Overvalued Near-Term

Montreal, Canada

Closed-End Funds Versus ETFs

Montreal, Canada

ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, are the hottest thing since sliced bread for investors. Low fees, generally sufficient liquidity and the ability to outpace expensive actively-managed products have resulted in a boom for the sector over the last ten years. If you want to invest in a market then ETFs will give you low-cost exposure.

But should ETFs form the driving force of a portfolio?

The Missing Link to Justify a Recovery in 2010

Montreal, Canada

According to the March 19 issue of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, bank lending in the United States continued to contract over the last three, six and twelve month periods. Unless it turns positive soon, this will mark the first post-WW II economic recovery without bank credit expansion.

Though we're definitely witnessing a recovery off the Q4 2008 lows as the global economy makes a comeback, bank credit remains elusive. Without bank credit growth an economic recovery might not be sustainable.

Weak Yen at the Core of a Nikkei Recovery in 2010

Montreal, Canada

Can you name which major market bourse is 70% below its all-time high recorded more than 20 years ago?

More than any other stock market, investors love to avoid Japan. No other country has produced more disappointments for investors since prices peaked in January 1990.

Despite fits and starts over the last decade Japanese equities have consistently lagged their major market peers amid a seemingly never-ending parade of poor corporate earnings, falling prices and flagging domestic consumption.

In Gold We Trust (and Fiat Paper We Don’t)

Montreal, Canada

Some investors are romantic about the holdings in their portfolio. Even amid a big slide in the price or a major change in underlying fundamentals, they refuse to abort the position. It seems individuals sometimes have this emotional attachment to an investment – whether it's oil, stocks, bonds, currencies or real estate.

Nowhere is this dedication to an investment more apparent than for Gold-Bugs.

Negative Swap Spreads a Bearish Signal for Credit

Montreal, Canada

I have to admit that before the credit crisis erupted in August 2007 I didn't spend much time at all analyzing the inner workings of the credit market. Acronyms like SWAPS, CDOs and ABX barely made my daily regimen of global indicators. But that's changed markedly since 2007.