Eurozone Deflation Dead Ahead
Zurich, Switzerland
The talk in Europe remains about Greece. Should we or shouldn't we bailout Greece? That's what the Europeans are fiercely debating at the moment.
The Europeans are heading right into the den of a deflationary trap. If that's indeed true then high quality German government bonds, or bunds, offer the best values in the eurozone now. As for the EUR, I believe it has entered a decade of discontent and hardship as the Germans above all debate whether to remain a part of the EMU, or European Monetary Union.
At a time when most of the world is still supporting an economic recovery plan to boost growth following the darkest days of the credit crisis, the Europeans seem bent on fighting inflation.
Indeed, the recipe given to address rising fiscal deficits across the eurozone is a recipe for economic disaster.
By forcing profligate countries like Greece and many others to aggressively cut spending at a time when unemployment is rising and output declining is the wrong way to address imbalances, at least at this time.
The ECB, or European Central Bank, will eventually be compelled to launch a "quantitative easing" program, similar to the United States, England and, to a lesser extent, Switzerland in order to boost monetary aggregates and grow inflation. This will become apparent over the next few years when the ECB's efforts to drain economic growth vis-à-vis sharp spending cuts in Greece, Portugal, Spain and others results in deflation, an environment of declining prices.
The Germans are now prepared, however reluctantly, to supply Greece with 28% of the total €30 billion ($41 billion) needed to cover the country's short-term financing requirements. But for how long can the Germans continue supporting Greece and others with out of control finances?
The EUR faces a long road ahead. For EUR-based investors, gold remains the best defense in an uncertain monetary union
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