Roseman's Eruptions



Plunging Pound Ultimately Bullish for British Stocks

Montreal, Canada

The British pound is now the whipping boy in foreign-exchange markets as the baton is handed down from the EUR – both trashed since late November against the U.S. dollar and gold bullion. Fears of a hung U.K. parliament ahead of elections this spring are causing widespread discontent for gilt, or British bond, investors. But that's not necessarily the case for U.K. investors in domestic stocks.

Utilities Price Action Bearish as Bond Yields Decline

Montreal, Canada

Back in December, I purchased XLU, or the SPDRs Utilities ETF, on the premise that income-producing stocks with steady earnings would continue to outpace the broader market in a sluggish economy. But the short-term price action for this sector has turned bearish lately and now warrants investor caution.

Trend Continues to be Down

- Dugald Malcolm

Montreal, Canada

The S&P 500's trend continues to be downward, despite recent movement to the upside. Formidable levels of resistance have contained the recent rally, preventing it from regaining the peak levels made back in January.

Volatility Still the Best Bet in 2010

Chicago (en route to Phoenix)

Earlier last month I made the case for buying assets that have been depressed over the last several months and beyond since the market hit a low on March 9, 2009. I still believe that low was not "the low" but an intermittent low in the confines of a secular bear market that began in October 2007.

Credit Swaps Next on Government Hit-List

Montreal, Canada

George Soros wants them banned. And now several European governments want to banish them, too.

Credit default swaps, or CDS's, are in the firing line this month as critics of the trade hammer down on banks and hedge funds amassing big bets against Greek and other weak sovereign government bond markets. The Greek government is also coming under fire for its 2001 arrangement with Goldman Sachs for structuring swap contracts that might have resulted in obscuring Greece's fiscal woes.

Fed’s Discount Rate Hike No Surprise

Montreal, Canada

The Federal Reserve surprised most market participants with a sudden hike in the discount rate yesterday after the markets closed. Stock futures immediately declined as bond yields shot significantly higher from about 3.70% to 3.80% on the benchmark ten-year Treasury bond.

Calm has been restored this morning and bonds are trading slightly higher.

Hedge Fund King Soros Does Gold Flip-Flop

Montreal, Canada

Don't do as they say, but rather do as they do…

Hedge fund legend, George Soros, whose Quantum Fund ranks as the most profitable global macro hedge fund over the last forty years, pulled an about-face on the public last month at the Davos World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Soros, interviewed by Bloomberg and CNBC in January at Davos, lamented that gold was the 'ultimate asset bubble' and that there was "no alternative to the dollar."

Next Move by ECB Might Be a Rate Cut

Montreal, Canada

Europe's economic recovery is now clearly lagging the United States. Economic data has recently depicted a sputtering advance following the trough in Q1 2009. And although a weaker EUR should help to boost export growth this quarter, the Greek debt crisis has accentuated the difficulties surrounding not only sovereign debt financing but also funding for large and small businesses alike.

Don’t Sell EUR Now

Montreal, Canada

If you're stuck with unwanted EUR now is not the time to sell. The currency is now heavily oversold on a short-term basis and will shortly record a big rebound following five straight weeks of severe losses.

From a 2009 high in late November the single European currency has sunk more than 9% heading into this morning's New York trading session. From its all-time high back in the summer of 2008 the EUR has now shed a cumulative 15%.

Washington Headed via California as Debt-Servicing Time-Bomb Escalates in 2010s

Montreal, Canada

If not for federal handouts more than a dozen states would be officially bust in early 2010. Not least among the deadbeats is California, which last year issued IOUs to cover its budget shortfall.