Roseman's Eruptions



The Fed’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Exit

Montreal, Canada

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will terminate its historical $1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed securities purchase (MBS) program. The buying spree, which helped to boost the Fed's balance sheet from around $750 billion dollars in the summer of 2007 to north of $2 trillion dollars now, is likely to result in higher mortgage rates as the Fed begins to sell these securities.

Dollar and EUR Poor Benchmark References

Montreal, Canada

U.S. stocks might be hitting new 18-month highs this year but that's not the case for the MSCI EAFE Index or Europe, Australia and the Far East when measured in dollars. The popular major markets benchmark remains below its dollar-adjusted high even though several indexes overseas have recently surpassed their highest levels since Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008.

History Confirms Now is a Bad Time to Buy Stocks

Montreal, Canada

Is there a margin of safety buying common stocks when fundamentals like price-to-book, dividend yield and price-to-earnings are trading at the low end of their historical range? Or, is the individual investor better off chasing momentum and cutting loose when an index breaks its short or long-term moving averages?

In my experience, buying at a low price is the safest and most profitable strategy for the long-term investor.

Poor U.S. Treasury Auction Sparks Sell-Off

Montreal, Canada

"This is a first sign of stress leading to higher Treasury yields and is not to be missed."

            -James Caron, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Strategy at Morgan Stanley

Norway, not Switzerland, a Superior EUR Hedge as Threat of Greek Default Increases

Montreal, Canada

As the EUR continues to consolidate this month and drifts to new lows for the year, the U.S. dollar is rallying hard. The dollar is now the safe-haven in Europe – the most ridiculous assumption because the U.S. currency is beset by far more net debt than any European country, including Greece. The United States will have its day of reckoning in the future as markets eventually shift their attack on Treasury debt and force interest rates much higher.

But for now, let's keep our focus on the EUR.

Nuclear Energy on “Sale” Amid $80 Oil

Montreal, Canada

Now in a deep bear market in 2010, spot uranium ranks among the cheapest of commodities and should form a major bottom soon following new agreements to build nuclear reactors worldwide, including the first reactor in the United States since Three Mile Island.

Also, the Chinese and Indians are boosting subsidies for new nuclear facilities this year while uranium supplies should finally begin to tighten following massive dumping since late 2007.

Emerging Market Currencies to Dominate in 2010s

Montreal, Canada

With the exception of Russia, several emerging market central banks have started tightening monetary policy. That implies rising currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and EUR over the next 12 months and beyond as major economy central banks struggle with exiting fiscal profligacy and ever-present deflation. Also, a growing sovereign debt crisis will restrain central banks' ability to tighten monetary policy as rising funding costs threaten another macroeconomic blow-out.

Primary Trend Turns Bullish as More Indexes Hit 2010 Highs

Montreal, Canada

According to Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters the primary trend of the stock market is now bullish following recent confirmation this week of several key barometers.

Markets continue to climb a "wall of worry" this month with more indexes breaking into new highs for the year after recouping January losses. Earlier this month the Russell 2000 Index, S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index and the S&P 600 Index of small-caps hit new 2010 highs.

Germany is Right to Propose Euro-Zone Expulsion

Montreal, Canada

"We need to have an agreement under which, as a last resort, it's possible to exclude a country from the euro zone if again and again it doesn't fulfill the requirements."

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, March 17, 2010

Solar Energy Stocks in Bear Market as Government Subsidies Wane, Profitability Turns Cloudy

Montreal, Canada

Is solar energy a fad? Is the bull market in alternative energy over? George Soros, Warren Buffet and T. Boone Pickens certainly don't think so as all three currently maintain stakes in solar energy. But could these investors – probably the greatest collection of investment minds of the 20th century -- be wrong about solar power?