Roseman's Eruptions



Costa del Sol a BUY after Spanish Bust

Marbella, Spain

This marks my second holiday in the Spanish Riviera since 2005. Four years ago, Marbella and neighboring towns were littered with cranes; not anymore.

The last time I visited Marbella the Costa del Sol region was in the throes of a major real estate boom that saw prices extend as far as the eye can see; now the property market has crashed and bargains beckon in Spain.

Texas and the Dakotas Best Municipal Bond Bets amid Funding Crisis

Montreal, Canada.

It’s not a pretty site for state finances.

California, the world’s ninth-largest economy -- is bankrupt once again. The state issued its first batch of IOUs yesterday as its coffers ran dry. Though extreme, California is certainly not alone this year as many other states grapple with a bear market in revenues, rising unemployment and increasingly grow dependent on Washington to fund state and municipal operations.

Bear Market in U.S. Housing to Last Years

Montreal, Canada

The prospect for a quick residential real estate recovery continues to look dim in 2009 as the market struggles to wind down a 12-month supply glut.

Homebuilders, Regional Banks and Transports Flashing Red

As the third quarter gets underway, U.S. stocks posted their best quarterly gains since Q4 1998 following the Long Term Capital Management crisis. June, however, did witness some important price divergences for several sectors of the market suggesting this bear market rally is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce since March 9.

Default Gambling: Markit Launches New Sovereign CDS Indices as Government Debt Levels Surge in 2009

Montreal, Canada

The explosion of global sovereign debt issuance since last year combined with a marked deterioration of public finances has fueled a new market for betting against governments bonds. And that’s great news for aggressive investors because before this credit unwinding is over several nations will default on their sovereign debt obligations.

Surging U.S. Savings Rate a Bad Omen for Stocks

On Friday, data confirmed the rising trend among Americans since Q4 2008.

For the first time in almost two decades, Americans are saving again and becoming frugal following a decade of reckless spending, massive debt accumulation and mortgage speculation.

Curious about China’s Dollar Sabre-Rattling

Montreal, Canada

In the absence of a major stock market decline or another financial institution blow-up this summer it’s probably a safe bet to start nibbling at foreign currencies again.

Next Chapter of Banking Crisis Unfolds as Credit Card Securitization Threatens to Unravel

Montreal, Canada

Credit card securitization is the new dirty phrase in mid-2009 as banks face an avalanche of bad loans tied to consumer loans that were aggressively sold to investors as individual securities prior to the credit crash almost 24 months ago.

Maersk Warning Sheds Bearish Signal on Global Shipping

Denmark’s AP Moller-Maersk, the world’s largest bulk cargo shipping company, provided some important insight on the future direction of trade-flows on Tuesday. The news sheds bearish light on the absurd rally in the Baltic Dry Index and other industrial metals, including crude oil.

Cashing in on Conventional Wisdom, Part II

From a credit perspective, the emerging market bond sector is the most compelling short speculation over the next few years. And Brazil, the largest debt issuer in the sector is now not only rated investment grade but also widely believed to be the next super economy this century as resource revenues continue to fatten its foreign exchange reserves and drive massive foreign direct inflows into Latin America’s largest economy.