Roseman's Eruptions



Cashing in on Conventional Wisdom (Part I)

How many investors shorted technology stocks in the late 1990s ahead of the bust in March 2000? Alternatively, how many speculators bet against bank stocks in 2007 ahead of the historical crash in financial services companies? And how many investors wagered residential real estate prices would collapse ahead of the peak in the summer of 2006?

Stick to Income, Cash amid Rising Euphoria

Don’t feel compelled to buy stocks now.

Though the economic news lately has been “less bad” compared to just several months ago, the economy remains badly fractured and still heavily reliant on government life support. Several important credit markets are still largely dysfunctional and the entire yield curve on Treasury securities has surged since May making the prospect of recovery more uncertain.

Accelerating Deflation Handcuffs Ireland

Deflation or an environment of falling prices has not only hit Ireland but threatens to morph into runaway deflation following the latest report on consumer prices.

Ireland’s consumer price index fell 4.7% in May from a year ago – the sharpest contraction across Europe and the worst in Ireland since 1933. Though not as chronic as Ireland, consumer prices have indeed turned negative in other Euro-zone countries since March.

“Gold to Go” Vending Machines Hit Germany

Germans will soon be able to buy gold in vending machines across the country the same way most people purchase a chocolate bar or a soda. That’s not the sort of bullish development that’s conducive to new highs for the gold market – at least not for now.

Don’t Underestimate the Power of Deflation

In a span of just three months the great safe-haven trade has violently unwound in favor of risk-taking across stocks, speculative bonds, commodities and currencies. And Treasury bonds, which rallied to their lowest yield levels since the 1950s in December, have posted their worst losses since 1994 the first six months of 2009.

Dumping T-bonds has been a great trade this year for several reasons.

Toxic Bank Assets Still on the Books

Montreal, Canada

Since the stock market low on March 9 investors have been drunk with enthusiasm sending all risk-based assets skyrocketing following a relentless pounding since late 2007. And bank stocks, which hit a 19-year low on March 6 have since rallied a cumulative 104% as measured by the iShares Financial Select SPDRs or XLF.

Junk Bonds Heavily Overbought Amid Tight Credit Noose

Montreal, Canada

One of the greatest asset reversals has occurred over the last three months with stunning velocity.

Junk bonds, or high-yield bonds, have seen their yields crash since peaking in early March from 17% to just 9.3% now, according to the Merrill Lynch-Bank of America High Yield 100 Index. The index has gained 17% in 2009 – better than U.S. stocks and other segments of risky credit.

Blow-Off Stage on the Horizon for Stocks, Junk Bonds

Montreal, Canada

Bull markets might climb a wall of worry. But this rally is defying reality as it pertains to corporate earnings, domestic consumption, tepid bank credit expansion and surging long-term interest rates. The market is now more dangerous than at any other time since late 2007.

The biggest fear right now is the big move in long-term Treasury and mortgage rates.

The Hunt for Value in Norwegian Bonds

Oslo, Norway.

Depending on your outlook for the global economy and corporate earnings over the next 12 months, Norwegian stocks are either a great buy or a timely sell. In my view, the investment-grade corporate bond market looks far more attractive – especially for dollar and euro based investors.

Baltic Dry Index Boosts Denmark’s Maersk

Copenhagen, Denmark.

Is this index for real?

This morning I’m on the way to meet Jyske Bank Private Banking in beautiful Copenhagen. The flight is just under an hour from Oslo so I won’t be bothering with bags or anything to check-in – exactly how I like to travel for day trips.

Denmark is about a lot of things but especially shipping. And the biggest company on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange is Maersk A/S, a formidable global container shipping company that’s easily recognizable the world over.