Surging U.S. Savings Rate a Bad Omen for Stocks
On Friday, data confirmed the rising trend among Americans since Q4 2008.
For the first time in almost two decades, Americans are saving again and becoming frugal following a decade of reckless spending, massive debt accumulation and mortgage speculation.
The U.S. national savings rate as a percentage of disposable income rose to 6.9% in May compared to 5.6% in April and almost zero percent just 12 months ago. Though consumer sentiment has improved since March when fears of Great Depression II were becoming a possibility amid a market freefall, confidence remains well below its all-time high in January 2007.
Compared to other major economies in Europe, however, America’s savings rate is low.
In Germany, savings as a percentage of disposable income is at 11%. In Canada, America’s largest trading partner, the savings rate has risen to 12% recently. Clearly, the trend among consumers in the world’s largest economies is to sock away savings following a brutal decline in personal assets since 2007. And that’s bad news for domestic consumption and corporate earnings.
Historically, the relationship between a rising savings rate in the United States and corporate earnings has been poor. The last bout of rising consumer savings in the 1970s resulted in the second worst bear market for stocks (1973-1974) followed by volatile equity markets that basically ended the decade where they began; adjusted for soaring inflation, stocks finished the decade much lower.
The big difference between the boost in consumer savings since late 2008 and the 1970s is the monumental shift in interest rate deposits. Thirty years ago, a consumer could stash away cash at 12% or more; today, interest rates remain at their lowest levels since the 1950s prompting many savers to consider lunging after riskier strategies that yield more than just 0.5% or less in staid savings accounts. That’s what the market wants – more liquidity tired of earning near-zero percent interest.
Low rates will continue to attract more money from savings to riskier investments. But the trend is likely to be much more subdued compared to 2002, 1994, 1990 and 1982 when previous bear markets resulted in typical recoveries for financial markets. This is not a “typical” recovery; the unemployment rate is still rising (9.4%), housing markets have not stabilized and consumption is now largely in the hands of the government through fiscal spending. Finally, the expansion of bank credit in this cycle won’t be similar to previous post-WW II expansions. Banks are not lending.
With Americans finally turning thrifty again it’ll be interesting to see how meaningful corporate earnings can recover over the next six months. If consumers aren’t spending then it’s a pretty good bet that earnings expectations are too way optimistic.
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