Roseman's Eruptions



U.K. Gilts the World’s Best Short

Montreal, Canada

Judging by the break-even rates on inflation-protected bonds, the United Kingdom is home to the highest future inflation. And that means shorting or betting against British gilts (government bonds) will probably rank as one of the smartest speculations over the next five years.

Cash Management Still Important as Banking System Remains Frail

Montreal, Canada

Despite the huge rally in world markets since March and the apparent relaxation of bank credit stress investors in the United States are still sitting on more than $3 trillion dollars in near-zero percent yielding money-market funds. And any cash leaving money-market funds this year is mostly heading to bond funds, not equity funds.

Parking cash at 0% is a waste. There are definitely better alternatives.

Hedge Fund Master Bearish on U.S. Treasury Bonds

Montreal, Canada

"It's almost Armageddon if the Chinese and Japanese don't buy our debt."

    -- Julian Robertson, Jr., CNBC interview, September 2008.

The Next Currency Crisis?

Montreal, Canada

Is the EUR a suitable alternative to a falling dollar? Are other currencies any better?

Over the last decade a record number of central banks worldwide have reduced their exposure to U.S. dollars while raising their allocations to the EUR and to a lesser extent, the Japanese yen. According to a recent report from the IMF, central banks today hold about 63% of their total reserves in dollars – a record low.

 

Busted Bargains in U.S. Housing

Montreal, Canada

If I was looking to buy a home or a condominium in the United States today there's no doubt I would take the plunge right away. That's especially true for non-dollar-based investors where foreign currencies have appreciated markedly this decade vis-à-vis the dollar making American residential housing extraordinarily inexpensive. It doesn't matter if you're European, Brazilian, Japanese or Canadian; the time to buy U.S. residential property is now.

Paper Money Losing Credibility

Montreal, Canada

Earlier this year I reduced my gold exchange-traded-fund holdings by 50% around $950 an ounce as I anticipated another deep correction for risky assets. Though a decline followed, gold prices recovered quickly and I admitted to making a mistake. I regret not keeping that position.

Bank Earnings Fudged, Masked by Lies

Montreal, Canada

The phony results now underway for Q3 bank earnings continue to mask the greatest bear market rally or con-game in history.

Markets Will Force U.S. Consumption Tax

Montreal, Canada

In the absence of an initiative by government and the populace to reduce bulging deficits, the United States will eventually be forced to introduce a consumption tax to pay for its staggering borrowing. According to Lawrence Kadish (Wall Street Journal, October 12, 2009), 40% of individual income taxes in 2009 will go toward debt interest payments. This is unsustainable.

Plunging Discounts a Warning in Closed-end Bond Funds

Montreal, Canada

Credit spreads continue to rally in nonstop fashion since March with the entire spectrum of investment-grade and speculative debt now at pre-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels. Even the riskiest sectors of the bond market – including leveraged loans have rallied sharply.

Chinese Surpass West as Fine Wine Collectors

Mexico City, Mexico

As Asia continues to grow increasingly affluent this century, the baton of economic prosperity is rapidly changing hands. This time, the Chinese are the supreme leaders in fine wine collecting – surpassing London and New York following a milestone auction.