Busted Bargains in U.S. Housing

Montreal, Canada

If I was looking to buy a home or a condominium in the United States today there's no doubt I would take the plunge right away. That's especially true for non-dollar-based investors where foreign currencies have appreciated markedly this decade vis-à-vis the dollar making American residential housing extraordinarily inexpensive. It doesn't matter if you're European, Brazilian, Japanese or Canadian; the time to buy U.S. residential property is now.

Combined with an average 35% decline in residential housing prices since markets peaked in 2006, a cheap U.S. dollar makes real estate the bargain of the decade hands down.


Last April at a Sovereign Society conference in Bermuda I was asked whether I thought real estate in the United States was a good investment. I replied that commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop -- which remains in a severe downtrend across most cities – while residential housing should be purchased.

Housing in the United States is the cheapest it has been in more than four decades. Throw in the lowest interest rates in years to finance a home, sharply lower prices since the bull market peaked in 2006, tax incentives from the government and you have a formidable opportunity. I would not hesitate for a second as a buyer, especially in places like South Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California. If you really want a bargain try Detroit – but you might wait decades to make any money.

If you're not buying a home now at these levels then you're simply not doing your job as a smart investor. Prices have already crashed. People waiting for another 20% drop are making a big mistake. The real estate market might indeed decline further – anything is possible. Yet it would seem rather remote that prices will crash from these levels since the government is on a "Print or Die" mission to grow the economy at all costs.

I'm not looking to buy U.S. real estate at this stage of my life. But if I was in my 60s and looking to retire somewhere warm, I'd be a buyer today.

Have a good weekend. See you on Monday.

 

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