Montreal, Canada

Did a surge in individual and business taxation in the 1930s exacerbate the Great Depression? If so, the trend in state and federal government taxes isn't friendly to an economy that remains badly fractured by weak credit demand and rising unemployment.

In yesterday's Wall Street Journal (page A25), Arthur Laffer (Laffer Associates) makes a strong historical case about taxes, the Great Depression and comparisons with today's economic challenges. His findings make for a sobering read.

Montreal, Canada

- The objective of forecasting is to identify the significant but undiscounted aspects of the outlook. This is where the true opportunities for investors lie and where business can get the jump on competitors. A rehash of the consensus view, which is fully discounted in security markets and business plans, is nearly useless.

        - Gary Shilling

Deflation is still in town and investors should brace for more trouble in 2010.

Montreal, Canada

For the first time in more than a year, trailing 12-month stock market returns for a dozen emerging markets are now in positive territory while many major economy bourses are slightly down since September 2008.

By March 9, 2009, the MSCI World Index and the S&P 500 Index hit levels not seen since 1997. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index bottomed in November 2008 and has gained almost 120% from its multi-year low.

Montreal, Canada

After a brief improvement in July, U.S. credit card issuers reported a rise in those borrowers requiring more time to pay their balances in August. Capital One, J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Discover Financial Services and AMEX all reported charge-offs increased in the latest period under review.

Montreal, Canada

Betting against a market or an index is always difficult. Warren Buffet has always exclaimed that investors betting against America always lose money over the long-term. And the worst hedge fund category in the 1990s and earlier this decade prior to the 2008 Panic belonged to the short-sellers or hedge funds that have a dedicated short-selling mandate.

Montreal, Canada

Gold has traditionally been viewed as the best inflation hedge since the creation of fiat coins under the Roman Empire. When deficits became too large – namely to fund foreign conquests – the Romans simply chipped-off parts of the coin.

Montreal, Canada

According to money-manager, Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates in California, bonds have outpaced stocks over the long-term and with far less risk.

Mr. Arnott recently contributed an article to the Journal of Indexes refuting the long held notion that stocks always beat bonds.

Montreal, Canada

It’s a big mistake to assume that bank balance-sheets across Europe have seen the worst as the global economic recovery enters its sixth month. Credit default swaps, contracting bank lending, tepid consumer spending and regional woes in Central Europe all pose ongoing threats to a sustainable recovery in Europe.

Zurich, Switzerland

When I first discovered the fascinating world of financial markets in 1988, I quickly learned about the value of the dollar and its long-term relationship versus gold. I also learned how the Swiss franc – the strongest currency against the dollar in Europe – was the best paper money to have in your pocket.

The Swiss franc is still a good currency relative to the majority of paper trash still circulating in the world, but it isn't a beacon of strength, either.

Zurich, Switzerland

The most compelling argument right now for the bulls is super low interest rates. In the absence of attractive alternatives in a low-yielding world investors are being pulled back into risky assets this year – and for the wrong reasons.