So says Bill Gross

Tobin's Q is low ...

Yesterday, I discussed the positive divergences which I believe are signaling a coming rally in stocks.  Here is another example from StockTiming.com.

I can unequivocably and with complete confidence say that I am 50% certain the bottom is in.

For 2008.

I think we go back and retest the lows next year.

However, I think the 2008 lows were set last month.

It's not like it's a brave call or anything.  There are only 18 trading days remaining in the year.

I read somewhere today that since 1900, when the market has been down three months in a row, it is up the following month 85% of the time.

Upon reflection, the odd thing about the past 10 years is how I have felt about the market during much of this time.

And my dominant feeling for the majority of the past 10 years, depending on the market, has been “Wow, this market sure is stupid.”

First there was the dotcom bubble, where investors, in their “wisdom” bid up Talking Sock Puppet companies to market values in the billions of dollars even as those companies often had a mere few million dollars in revenues.

Well, that certainly was bad, wasn’t it?

Once again, the massive de-leveraging trade, taking advantage of the higher prices from last week, whacked down stocks. 

Once again, there was a big sell-off at the end of the day.  The S&P 500 fell 4.0% from the 2:52pm top tick into the close. 

But that is the new normal, is it not?

This is forced selling. 

From Reuters, via 24/7 Wall Street.

We here at Running of the Bulls spend most of our time thinking about financial markets.  (We're boring people.)  Occasionally, we also like to ponder ideas in economics and geopolitics.

I quite like politics though I shy away from it on this blog as this is meant to be a forum on asset markets, particularly stocks.  However, economic policy greatly influences asset prices, and since we want to make a whole lot of money in the asset markets, we have to understand how economics and politics effect the world around us.

From Trader's Narrative

From a UBS note on November 21 entitled “How low is low enough”

From Bespoke Group