The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
Upon reflection, the odd thing about the past 10 years is how I have felt about the market during much of this time.
And my dominant feeling for the majority of the past 10 years, depending on the market, has been “Wow, this market sure is stupid.”
First there was the dotcom bubble, where investors, in their “wisdom” bid up Talking Sock Puppet companies to market values in the billions of dollars even as those companies often had a mere few million dollars in revenues.
Then came real estate. We spent a good deal of our time in the first year or so detailing the idiocy of the real estate bubble in both residential and commercial real estate. Two years ago, the all-knowing market thought it wise to bid up commercial property rates to cap rates of 3%-4%. Dividend yields of 3% on REITs were rationalized as being appropriate because of the infinite growth in lease rates that lay ahead. Today, dividend yields on REITs are around 15%.
Next were the commodities. Investors figured that potash prices of $1000 a pound were rational. Coal stocks such as Patriot Coal nearly quadrupled in four months. PCX then fell from $80 to $8 over the next six. Oh, but the market got it right in the summer, didn’t it?
Let’s not forget credit. Less than two years ago, junk spreads were at all time lows. Emerging market sovereigns were trading as if they were on the verge of becoming developed world credits. (Okay, Greece and Italy, but still developed world.) The infinitely intelligent market was telling us how low bankruptcies were and how the world was in the midst of the strongest period of co-ordinated global growth in its history.
Sure is smart, that market.
Today, the market is throwing out risky assets and putting them on sale as never before. From junk bonds to investment-grade bonds to stocks to commercial real estate, anyone with a time frame longer than one’s nose is able to buy risky assets at remarkably stupid prices.
This morning on Bubblevision FinancialVortexVision, I watched one of the talking heads argue that the market is always right. Well, thinking about the past 10 years, watching the market over-react to just about everything, I have to disagree, at least if your time frame is longer than your nose.
But the market does not care one damn bit what I think. Mr. Market will do whatever it wants. And Mr. Market will do anything it wants.
If you are playing the long side as a trader, this is a horrible market. It still feels heavy to me and there is probably more downside to come.
If you are playing the long side as an investor, however, the market is offering up what may be a generational opportunity to buy.
I remain a buyer of (almost) all things risky. I care not that I am early.
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