Pondering the Euro and Precious Metals

The euro has achieved a 50% retracement of its move from $1.60 to $1.23.  I never got into my euro short call I made some time back.  I will be watching it closely for an entry point, which I suspect will be sometime in the new year as opportunities arise to sell stocks.

One has to be very heartened by the move in gold and silver if one is a precious metals bull.  If one shorts the euro against the dollar, I would not necessarily expect gold and silver to hold up.

Gold will go down if the world is in a deflationary spiral.  The gold perma-bulls/bugs are trying to have cake and eat too arguing that gold will rise in either an inflationary or a deflationary.  I think this argument is nonsense, and gold’s descent this year from $1032 to $682, and silver’s decline from $21 to $8 is indicative of what happens to precious metals during deflation.

However, I have always maintained that the end game for the precious metals would when nations are engaging in competitive devaluations of each other's fiat currencies against one another.  If so, then a rise in the dollar would not necessarily be met with a concurrent decline in gold and silver.

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