Montreal, Canada.

If this is genuinely a new bull market then why are the same groups that led the previous bull dominating the primary trend since March?

In the early 1990s, biotechnology, healthcare, small-caps, banks and emerging markets dominated the bull market that started in 1991 following the U.S. recession of 1989-1990. The latter half of that decade saw sector rotation develop after 1994 as technology stocks went through the roof. And in the last leg of the post-1982 bull market we saw rotation once again into natural resource stocks starting in March 2003.

Historically, a new bull market in stocks is characterized by a change in sector leadership. We've seen that phenomenon time and again over the last 40 years as new innovations and productivity improvements spawn big changes in industry and profits.

The last such dramatic change occurred in late 2002 at the cusp of a massive bull market for commodities – fed on the premise that China would forever consume the world's resources to fuel her impressive economic miracle. Commodities dominated global stock market profits over the last seven years until the lights went out in July 2008.

Since the intermittent low on March 9, virtually every sector of the market has rallied sharply. This price action is consistent with a massively oversold state of affairs heading into March trading as the financial system came perilously close to total collapse or Great Depression II. But over the last six months, stock market leadership is dominated by financials, technology and natural resource equities.

Technology stocks, which initially led this recovery last spring have since slowed their advance while banks and resource equities climb even higher.

Is this a bearish signal? Where is the new leadership coming from? Perhaps it is technology stocks. The NASDAQ Composite has surged 28% this year; the NASDAQ 100 is the only major U.S. composite to post a positive three-year return – up 1.7% annualized since August 2006.

However, if the current recovery is dominated by mostly the same groups that led the previous bull market up until October 2007, then we've got problems.

The commodities sector is pinning big hopes on China – a huge gamble that's likely to backfire because bank lending has turned into a casino since last spring as authorities wrestle with overheated bank credit growth. And for bank stocks, the spread on deposits compared to Treasury or corporate bonds is humongous – this group can make money going forward. Yet the smaller and mid-sized banks in the United States are still struggling and most failures this year are dominated by smaller institutions. Plus, all banks suffer from rotting toxic assets, including potential bad loans.

Technology might legitimize this rally. But I'm not sure I'd call this a bull market simply because stocks have gained more than 20% off their March lows.

After the government is through spending, private consumption will have to take over and there's no evidence yet consumers are in any mood to spend after the worst episode of wealth destruction since the 1930s from August 2007 until March 2009.