The Russell 3000 has dropped 23% this month.  That is in seven trading days.  This is, by any definition, a crash.

The market has given back all its gains since May 2003.  Heck, it hasn't done a thing since 1998. 

Since the intra-day peak a year ago today, the S&P 500 has fallen 43%.  The two worst bear markets since WWII, 1973-74 and 2000-02, experienced declines of 50%.  We are fast approaching those levels.

On my normalized earnings number of $75 per share, the S&P 500 is trading at 12x, nearing the lows of the past two decades.

The price/book of the S&P 500 is 1.9x, nearing the lows of the past two decades.

Since I began writing this blog, I have railed against the silliness in certain pockets of the asset markets, particularly housing, credit, and most recently, materials.

Now, its starting to get silly on the downside.

This is a global margin call as the world de-leverages.  The economy is going into a recession and stocks, unsurprisingly, are falling.  But stocks are being forced out of portfolios as investors rush to cash, either by their own volition or someone else's.

Typically, structural bear markets bottom at 8x earnings.  By my calculations, that would be at 600 on the S&P 500, another 33% decline from here.

I would be surprised if we hit that level, but markets can do anything they want. 

Do not trust anyone who says that market "can't" or "won't" do something.  They either are being emotional or do not understand the nature of markets.

I am working off the supposition that we are close to a near-term bottom in terms of time, but not necessarily returns.  I have no idea at what level we will bottom at, but I think the market will either bottom within the next week.

Of course, I'm just guessing and have no idea.

But virtually every metric I look at says the market is extremely oversold.  It said that last week, though, too.

Frankly, some stocks are hitting what I call "stupid value," meaning the valuation is so stupid, you have to buy, regardless what the current environment may be.

That is my mindset at the moment.  The market is creating "stupid value."

I remain net flat but have my trigger on the finger to buy.

However, it is a dangerous time.  If you are unsure, stay on the sidelines. 

There will be lots of opportunity to make money when all this ends.

And end it will.  That I can assure you.