Europe’s Golden Goose Under Assault
Zurich, Switzerland
Global warming is definitely not evident in Zurich this month. For the first time in memory, there's more snow covering the streets here than back home in Montreal. The weather is damp and you need rubbers to cover your shoes if you walk the city's beautiful streets. I had to buy new shoes yesterday because my soles were completely saturated by the pools of snow and slush.
But there's no place like Switzerland in the world. I always look forward to visiting this gorgeous Alpine country and this trip is no different. Yesterday, I met with NMG's Marc Sola (offshore insurance solutions) for lunch and later in the afternoon with two Swiss private banks.
Switzerland is anything but traditional at the moment. Many unconventional events are occurring at a time when the country is under assault from its biggest trading partners – namely Germany and the United States.
The Swiss National Bank has been actively dumping Swiss francs on the open market since March 2009 in its bid to weaken the strong franc vis-à-vis the euro and other European units while increasingly, G-7 countries have mounted their attack on undeclared Swiss tax haven assets.
In the span of just six months France, Italy, the United States and Germany have increased their demands that Switzerland give up names and release information on undeclared foreign accounts. Last week, Germany claimed it would pay about $3.5 million dollars for names of German citizens stashing cash here. Germany already doled out cash two years ago when it paid a former LGT banker in Liechtenstein to reveal names of German tax dodgers.
And so the attack continues. Switzerland finds itself fighting for banking secrecy, which for all intents and purposes, is now basically over following an IRS tax information exchange agreement last year. You don't park money here to avoid taxes. If you did, those days are over – at least as it pertains to major economy depositors.
It's hard to say exactly how this will end. In my view, it seems we're headed to some sort of mandatory global confiscation of undeclared offshore wealth, perhaps a 25% to 35% one-time tax on these accounts. That's just my gut feeling. The writing, it appears, is increasingly on the wall for tax evaders. Governments won't relent until they find more cash to fill their deficit-ridden coffers.
Swiss private bankers exclaim the global attack on its assets by high-tax countries is just a cheap shot deflecting economic issues away from challenging domestic affairs. I would agree.
But this is Switzerland's darkest hour in 2010. This country has seen its biggest financial services brand, UBS, destroyed since 2008 combined with an all-out assault by foreign tax authorities. The shine is off this great nation since 2008, as the world's largest economies in the west, including her largest trading partner, Germany, increasingly demand tax information data.
It seems Switzerland is a wounded animal in a jungle of vicious predators seeking to chip away at her vulnerability. And the attacks have definitely increased a few notches over the last six months.
With an estimated one-third of the world's offshore assets stored here it's no wonder she's fighting to keep that envious title. Yet is also seems increasingly likely that foreign governments will take a bigger slice of that pie in the years ahead – especially if the post-March 2009 economic recovery falters.
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