Bullish on a European Holiday in 2010

Montreal, Canada

Every summer I debate where to spend my holiday. I'm partial to Europe because of the fantastic food, wine, beaches and local culture, especially in the Mediterranean belt. I've spent numerous vacations in the Greek islands and Spain; this year I'm contemplating the Amalfi Coast in Italy. I'm incredibly fond of almost everything Italian – especially the food and Tuscan wine.

This year is special because for the first time since 2000 Europe will be far more affordable.

Will I able to relax in August?

Since 1997, August has been a bad month for investors with a rash of panics and crashes elevating my stress levels as some country or financial market collapses. It's amazing, but for the most part markets tend to seize-up during the summer when trading is thin and most investors are trying to relax at the beach. We'll see if this summer will be any different amid a rising sovereign debt crisis in Europe, which appears to be spreading to Spain and Portugal. Corporate credit spreads have also started to widen again for the first time since early 2009 making this recovery story a hard sell for the bears.

And more than ever, trying to break free from the office is becoming a challenge amid volatile capital markets and the urge to succumb to the forces of my Crackberry device. If you own a Blackberry then you know exactly what I'm talking about. But this year, I'm more bullish than ever on a European getaway because the EUR is 25% cheaper compared to 12 months ago.

Last summer I vacationed in Costa del Sol in the south of Spain. That was a marvelous trip. The problem, however, is that holiday was very expensive because the EUR was trading north of 1.45 or so at the time making everything painfully high-priced when converting back to U.S. or Canadian dollars. Toss in the VAT, or Value Added Tax, of about 15% to 20% and you've been seriously clipped.

Times have certainly changed…

If you're a dollar-based investor then this is the best time in almost ten years to vacation in Europe. The EUR has tanked more than 23% since hitting almost 1.60 late last November; literally in the span of just six months, Europe has become that much cheaper and I plan on making the best of it.



At last, my U.S. and Canadian dollars are finally stronger in Europe and even buy me more in expensive London. The pound has crashed from more than 2.25 to the Canadian dollar to about 1.50 now. Against the greenback, sterling has plummeted from a high of about 2.05 in 2008 to 1.48 currently.

VAT, of course, remains. Europeans pay a fat consumption tax but tourists can reclaim some of that tax from local purchases like clothing, gifts etc. Some countries have even raised the VAT this year as a consequence of the financial crisis and austerity measures.

Alternatively, Canadians might want to explore big bargains in the United States as our exchange rate is basically at par with Uncle Sam. This is a great time to vacation in the United States with strong Canadian dollars – and the U.S. is much cheaper than Europe.

For now anyway, the markets dislike the EUR and sterling but adore North American dollars. I seriously doubt this mindset will last and that's why I plan on enjoying every last moment in Europe this summer while I still can instead of paying for "highway robbery" due to a weak exchange rate.

If only I can make the markets chill in August and leave my Blackberry in the hotel room…

Viva Italia!

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